This is the 10th (wow) 2020 update. Today is May 15, 2019.
I’ve decided to name the rest of the updates I do uniquely, pertaining to either that week’s events in the cycle, or some general thought around said cycle. Also rolling out with this week’s update is unique header images, you know, to liven up the place a bit. Enjoy the update!
New Candidate: Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT)
Governor of Montana (2013-present)
Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana announced Tuesday morning (5/14) that he will run for President of the United States, becoming the 22nd candidate in the Democratic primary. Bullock is one of the last candidates on many radars for this cycle; the only major announcements that could still happen, or at least expected to happen, are Stacey Abrams, 2018 Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia, Bill De Blasio, Mayor of New York City, and Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks.
Bullock appears to be leveraging his appeal to rural voters in solidly Trump states; he championed his 2016 re-election in a state Trump won overwhelmingly. This will most likely be his message should he make the debate stage next month, and would serve him well among other candidates claiming a rural appeal like Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg.
A major focus for the Montana governor, should he win the nomination and be elected President, appears to be centered around campaign finance reform. In his announcement video, he talks about his time as Montana Attorney General and how he tried to resist the U.S. Supreme Court Decision in Citizens United v. FEC, more commonly known as the Citizens United case, which ruled that political donations are a form of free speech, and that the government cannot restrict corporations from making such donations. He also spoke more broadly about the role of money in politics, and how he believes it should have no influence on its everyday proceedings.
So what are his chances in this race? He is the 22nd Democratic candidate, and only 20 people are going to stand on that debate stage next month in Miami. Currently, only 18 people have qualified, and those two coveted spots may make the difference for lesser-known candidates gaining the traction they need. According to CNN, Bullock has already shown at more than 1% in 2 DNC-approved polls in the first day or so of his campaign; one more and he could be the 19th candidate to qualify, and would be one of the more quicker entries into the debate among the current primary.
One of the big points being thrown around so far in this cycle is the likeliness of lesser-known candidates getting any sort of a foothold in this race. If we’re looking into the historical probability of him getting elected, governors are more likely to be elected President than most other types of candidates you’re seeing in this race: senators, representatives, and mayors. However, this feeds into the idea of “electability”, which, in all honesty, is a sham of a concept in and of itself, but that is something to talk about in a whole separate post.
Truly, as of right now, we have no way of knowing, just as we do with most candidates in this race, where Bullock will be this time next year, after the first two major contests in this primary (Iowa and New Hampshire). At this early stage, front-runners and those following the pack are not solidified in those positions; to give you some examples, at this point in the 2008 Republican primary, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the front-funner in the race, but he would not go on to win the nomination, which was won by late Sen. John McCain; at this point in that year’s Democratic primaries, then-Senator Hillary Clinton was the front-runner, but would concede in June 2008, with the nomination going to Sen. Barack Obama.
Candidate Updates: Marianne Williamson qualifies for debates
The not-so-well-known 2020 Democratic candidate, Marianne Williamson, qualified for the first set of the party’s debates next month, according to her campaign’s website. Williamson is the 18th candidate to make the debate stage, with room only for two more before the Democratic National Committee begins to prioritize candidates who have qualified both with 65,000 unique donors (with at least 200 people in 20 states) and 1% in three polls. The 66-year-old spiritual leader and activist and friend of Oprah is centering her campaign on the idea of a spiritual reawakening for America.
(Axios: Which 2020 candidates have qualified for the debates) (Williamson’s campaign website)
Possible Candidates: Stacey Abrams (D-GA) leaves open the possibility of running for President in 2020
Stacey Abrams has been the hopeful of many for 2020, especially from those who followed her 2018 bid for governor of Georgia, where she faced what she believes was an unfair process, due to her opponent, Brian Kemp’s position as Georgia Secretary of State and his alleged meddling in their race due to that position.
Two months ago, Abrams teased a possible 2020 run on Twitter while promoting her book. Little has been heard about her presidential ambitions since then, until an interview she did last week with Pod Save America, a podcast by four former Obama advisers that started after the former President finished his second term. While being interviewed by Dan Pfeiffer, former Senior Adviser to the President and former White House Communications Director under Barack Obama, Abrams replied “yes” when asked if she was still considering joining the 2020 Democratic primary.
Abrams became a star of the Democratic party in 2018 during her bid for governor. She also gave the Democratic response to this year’s State of the Union Address by President Trump.
You can listen to the episode below (the interview starts at 1:01:55):
General Updates
- MoveOn, a progressive grassroots organizing group, announced it will hold a candidate forum on June 1 in San Francisco which it will stream online. (Politico)
- CNN will host a town hall with Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke on Tuesday, May 21, at 10pm EST.
Sources
- Williamson qualifying for debates: Politico
- Abrams on potential 2020 bid: Politico
- Pod Save America episode: Retrieved from Spotify, created by Crooked Media
- Debate qualification information (Bullock only): CNN
- Candidate information (Bullock only): FiveThirtyEight
Asterisk Life 